Delivery Companies Predict Food Trends For 2020 Based On Customers’ Ordering Habits

Restaurant consumers, at least those who leverage third-party delivery services, are on a big meatless kick as of late. That is at least according to year-end reports from the big four delivery aggregates–Postmates, Grubhub, Uber Eats and DoorDash.

Those four companies, by the way, make up 95% of foodservice delivery market share, so this data is as telling as it gets when it comes to what people are craving and what they’re willing to pay delivery fees for. 

To illustrate the meatless trend, Postmates, for example, realized a spike in plant-based orders across the board this year. Not only did Burger King and White Castle generate quite a bit of buzz with their Impossible Whopper and Impossible Slider, respectively, so too did Carl’s Jr., Del Taco and Dunkin’ with their plant-based offerings from Beyond Meat. 

For Postmates users, Beyond Meat products generated more than 52,000 deliveries this year, which was more than four times more than Impossible Burger orders on the app. In total, more than 385,500 plant-based meat orders have been placed on the Postmates platform so far in 2019. 

Meanwhile, Grubhub’s “Year in Food” report also shows heavy cravings for vegetarian dishes. The item gaining the most momentum this year was cauliflower pizza, rising 650% in popularity. This reflects an overall market trend driven by CPG market share leader Caulipower, which has experienced a staggering 430% growth in the past year, according to Snack and Bakery. 

Vegan and vegetarian dishes claimed seven of Grubhub’s top 10 spots, compared to just three last year. Further, vegan orders rose 27% in popularity overall this year versus 2018. 

The remainder of the top 10 ordering trends and their percentage increases are:

·     Spicy brussels sprouts: 622%

·     Portobello empanada: 601%

·     Black bean & sweet potato taco: 513%

·     Miso pork ramen: 413%

·     Chicken burger: 318%

·     Bone broth: 298%

·     Brown sugar milk (bubble) tea: 281%

·     Vegan pad thai: 280%

·     Impossible burger: 203%

Interestingly, the late-night crowd was also craving vegetarian offerings this year. While Buffalo chicken empanadas and brisket quesadillas were the two biggest jumpers (277% and 200%, respectively), truffle Parmesan fries (157%), garlic and Parmesan breadsticks (132%) and vegan burgers (128%) were also popular requests during the post-dinner daypart.

Overall, as Grubhub’s report notes: “one thing is clear, plant-based foods are here to stay.” 

Uber Eats’ year-end report also showed a vegetarian dish as its most popular request for 2019, though not necessarily a healthy one: French fries. Uber Eats, which marked its one billionth delivery milestone this year, notes that salads and soups (specifically bone broth, udon and ramen) were also heavily requested, as were sushi and mozzarella sticks. 

DoorDash’s year-end report favored Mexican cuisine, which was ordered via the app 314% more than last year. Half of the company’s top 10 orders were Mexican dishes, including burrito bowls, chicken tacos, bean burritos, taco salads and nachos. 

Rounding out the top five were American, Chinese, Italian and Thai cuisines.

Other interesting tidbits 

These reports yielded much more interesting information than just an increase in vegetarian orders, however. Postmates, for example, had a unique perspective to the so-called chicken sandwich wars, noting that Popeyes’ wildly popular chicken sandwich outsold Chick-fil-A’s sandwich on the app by 42% in September before selling out completely.   

Also, according to Postmates, orders of pumpkin spice items declined this year, one of the few items to do so. The company shows that requests for pumpkin spice items were down nearly 10% this year. This delivery trend hasn’t seemed to affect Starbucks’ signature drink, however–at least not yet. The company’s most recent quarter ended Sept. 29 included a comp sales increase of 6%. 

Of further note, Postmates’ biggest order of the year came from Taco Bell and included 20 Quesaritos, 60 Soft Tacos, 120 Cool Ranch Doritos Locos Tacos and 20 Crunchwrap Supremes. Meanwhile, Taco Bell’s sister chain KFC was the source for Postmates’ “most innovative” order from 2019. “Innovative” might be a generous descriptor here, as that order was a whole kernel corn and four-piece chicken combo with 300 packets of ketchup. 

Meanwhile, someone spent $5,209 on the DoorDash app for a single alcohol order containing just bottles of cognac. The most expensive order to come through the DoorDash platform was $2,878–smoked ribbed tip, mac and cheese, crab fried rice and curry cornbread. 

For Grubhub, the most expensive single-item order was 30 grams of osetra black caviar for $285. The largest non-catering order was more than 300 tacos for a Halloween party and the smallest order on the app, if you can believe it, was a single packet of hot sauce.

What’s next? 

Chances are a single hot sauce packet won’t become a delivery trend, but just what is on tap for 2020? Grubhub’s data shows rising orders of celery juice, oat milk, street corn, poke, avocado toast and kale. 

Uber Eats came up with 20 orders we’ll see more of in the New Year: 

1. Starfruit

2. Squid ink

3. Collagen

4. Reishi

5. Keto

6. Brussels sprouts

7. Farro

8. Harissa

9. Pho

10. Bone broth

11. Chickpea hummus

12. Cold brew

13. Cauliflower

14. Udon

15. Cabbage

16. Kale

17. Impossible burger

18. Kimchi

19. Ginger

20. Oat milk

DoorDash predicts the top 15 items coming down the pike for 2020, and they seem to be all over the map (and somewhat dessert-heavy): apple pie, cream cheese Rangoon, molten chocolate cake, hash browns, Brussels sprouts, tortilla soup, create-your-own sushi/pizza, fried fish sandwiches (the next sandwich war, perhaps?), French toast, broccoli cheddar soup, pesto Cavatappi, egg rolls, chicken fajitas, mac and cheese and stuffed jalapeños. 

Still, it’s DoorDash’s non-food data that seems to be the most interesting piece of information from all of these reports. A whopping 66% of DoorDash users reported that food delivery is their preferred way to eat dinner, more than cooking their own meal and picking up takeout.

These high numbers aren’t just for dinner, nor are they just for DoorDash users: a new report from CBRE Group reiterates this trajectory, noting that half of millennials are more likely to order food for delivery compared to just two years ago. In other words, it seems as though we’re well beyond the point of no return on delivery and these menu predictions may therefore carry more weight than ever.